Chinese , Is losing Super-benefit of Population?
The China Goverment make 7th Population census, Our situation is not as good as we think about the China future.
The census is held once every ten years, and the highly anticipated seventh census population data is officially released. The reason why population data has attracted much attention is that population is the most certain variable in macroeconomic research, which directly determines future economic trends and reshapes business models. Moreover, once the trend is formed, it is basically impossible to change, whether it is the liberalization of three children or the full liberalization of childbirth. Therefore, it is very necessary to get a thorough understanding of the population, to understand the general trend of the population, and to take full measures to solve the problem of “one old and one small”. Of course, it is more important to deal with the systemic impact of this structural change, especially the impact caused by a cliff-like decline in population.
1- The total population continues to grow, but the population growth rate has slowed down significantly: 1.412 billion VS 1.34 billion; 0.53% VS 0.57%.
The total population in 2010 was 1.34 billion, and in 2020 is 1.412 billion. The total population continues to grow. However, the growth rate has slowed down significantly, with an average annual growth rate of 0.57% in the first 10 years and an average annual growth rate of only 0.53% in the past 10 years. It is expected that it will continue to decline in the future. It is almost impossible and futile to change the population trend. According to this trend, the peak of the total population is getting closer and the turning point is about to come. According to the UN’s previous forecast, India’s population is expected to surpass China by around 2027 and become the world’s most populous country. China’s total population is expected to reach its peak in 2029, with about 1.442 billion people. After that, the population will gradually decline and is expected to be 2100. , China’s population will be reduced to 1.065 billion people.
2 The gender structure of the population continues to improve: 105.07 VS 105.20; 111.3 VS 118.1.
The sex ratio of the total population was 105.07, a slight decrease from 105.20 in 2010. The sex ratio at birth was 111.3, a decrease of 6.8 compared to 2010. The overall sex structure has improved significantly, but there are still more boys than girls.
3- The miniaturization and declining birth rate of families are becoming more and more obvious: 2.62 people VS 3.10 people.
Each family has a population of 2.62 people, which is less than 3 people. The size of the family is shrinking. There are indeed reasons why new families such as singles and empty-nest families are becoming more and more common, but the main reason is the low birth rate. After the birth population reached a high of 25.5 million in 1987, it went all the way down. In 2019, China’s new born population was 14.65 million, and the birth rate was 1.05%, the lowest since 1961 (three years of natural disasters).
4 The marriage rate continues to decline, and the fertility rate is below the warning line: 8.13 million pairs VS 13.47 million pairs; 1.3 VS 1.18.
In 2013, the number of marriage registrations in China reached a historical peak of 13.47 million pairs. Since then, the number has been declining. In 2020, the number of married pairs was 8.13 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%. The willingness to marry declined and the single economy prevailed. In 2000, the total fertility rate of women of childbearing age in China was 1.22 in the fifth census. In 2010, the total fertility rate for women of childbearing age dropped to 1.18. In 2020, the seventh census was 1.3 due to the implementation of the “comprehensive two-child” policy. The normal replacement rate required for an internationally recognized population balance is 2.1. The low fertility rate also has a self-reinforcing effect. According to the experience of South Korea and Japan, it has fallen below the fertility warning line and fell into the “low fertility trap” for 20-30 years. It must be foreseen in advance and dealt with.
5 The proportion of labor force population continues to decline: 63.35% VS 70.14%.
From the perspective of age composition, the proportions of the children and the elderly at both ends of the spindle are rising, but the proportion of the labor force in the middle is declining. In fact, the labor force has declined for the first time since 2012, and the number of employed people has declined for the first time in 2018. In 2019, it has dropped by 890,000 from the previous year, and the demographic dividend has continued to fade. Especially with the post-80s generation of baby boom dividends, the labor force will decline sharply, and the problems in it deserve great attention.
6 The rapid arrival of deep aging: 13.50% VS 8.87%.
According to international practice, 7% of the population over 65 is aging, 14% is deep aging, and 20% is super aging. In 2010, the proportion of the population over 65 years old was 8.87%. China has just entered an aging society. In 2020, the proportion of the population over 65 years old will be 13.50%. It is about to enter a deep aging population and is expected to enter a super-aging population in 2030. From aging to super-aging, China only took 30 years, and the aging process is very rapid. The United States was aging in 1950, deep aging in 2015, and super aging in 2030. The entire process took 65 years, and there was plenty of time to prepare for the aging process.
In the next 5 to 10 years, we must prepare for the upcoming demographic collapse, and the demographic dividend is rapidly disappearing. Because the period from 1966 to 1974 was the first population peak in China. About 294 million people were born. This group will gradually age in the next five or six years. Approximately 300 million people will suddenly become aging. The future economy is a huge challenge.
7 Getting old before getting rich is worthy of attention: US$800 VS US$10,000; US$10,000 VS US$20,000; US$20,000 VS US$40,000.
Generally, when entering an aging society, the per capita GDP of Western developed countries is US$10,000, while China’s is only US$800; when entering a deeply aging society, the per capita GDP of Western developed countries is US$20,000 and China is about US$10,000; entering a super-aging society, the West is developed The country’s per capita GDP is 40,000 US dollars, and China is about 20,000 US dollars. China gets old before it gets rich, and the pension issue must be broken. You can refer to the practice of delaying pensions in the United States and increasing early and late.
8 University education accounted for: 15.47% VS 8.93%, education level has improved significantly.
The number of people with university education per 100,000 people rose from 8,930 to 15,467, nearly doubling, and the bonus to engineers continues to be prominent. However, we must also see that there is still a lot of room for improvement in overall education. University (including junior college) education accounted for 15.45% of the population, high school (including technical secondary school) education accounted for 15.09% of the population, a total of more than 30 %, that is, nearly 70% of the population has an education level below high school. This is similar to our previous statistics. From the resumption of the college entrance examination in 1977 to the present, the cumulative number of people with a bachelor degree or above accounted for less than 4% of our total population, and the number of ordinary undergraduates and junior colleges accounted for less than 7% of the total population. Many people will be surprised after reading it. This is a typical survivor bias.
9 The population gathers in the eastern urban agglomeration: 39.93% VS 37.78%.
The regional differentiation of the population is becoming more and more obvious. The eastern region accounts for 39.93% (+2.15 percentage points), the central region accounts for 25.83% (-0.79 percentage points), the western region accounts for 27.12% (+0.22 percentage points), and the northeast region accounts for 6.98 % (-1.20 percentage points). The population changes in the central and western regions are relatively stable, and the eastern and northeastern regions are in sharp contrast. The population further gathers in the developed urban agglomerations in the eastern region, and rapidly flows out of shrinking cities.
10 The new urbanization significantly exceeded the target: 63.89% VS 49.68%.
The proportion of the urban population in 2000 was 36.22% in 2010, 49.68% in 2010, and 63.89% in 2020, which is 3.89 percentage points higher than the target that the urbanization rate of the permanent population will reach about 60%. . This is also an important growth point for China’s economic development in the future, and it will deepen into urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas.
(The author is the Dean and Chief Economist of the Institute of Finance)
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